Analyst Group

Equity Research Report on Circio - Funded to Wait for the Right Deal

Positiv

Sammanfattning

Analytiker lyfter fram betydande framsteg för Circio under 2026 med circVec-teknologin, som visat upp till 60x högre genuttryck. Bolaget har säkrat finansiering till 2030 och ingått 23 strategiska samarbeten. En första licensaffär förväntas under 2027.

Analys

Pressmeddelandet beskriver en positiv utveckling för Circios teknologiplattform med lovande in vivo-data och en utökad finansiell räckvidd. Flera kommande datatillfällen och potentiella licensavtal med stora läkemedelsbolag utgör viktiga milstolpar. Värderingen baseras på en plattform-fokuserad rNPV-modell, vilket indikerar en betydande uppsida från nuvarande nivå.

Nyckeltal

Finansiering säkrad
~NOK 820m
Uppskattad runway
till FY2030
Strategiska samarbeten
23
Aktievärdering (Base scenario)
NOK 10.3 (5.9)

Insikter

  • • Teknologisk validering med terapeutiska proteiner stärker plattformens trovärdighet.
  • • Flera kommande datatillfällen (circVec 5.0, in vivo disease model, CNS-samarbete) kan ytterligare minska teknisk risk för licenstagare.
  • • Förväntad första licensaffär under 2027 är en central trigger för värdering.
Påverkan · Positiv · 4/10
Liten påverkan
NegativNeutralPositiv
−100+10

Circio Holding (”Circio” or ”the Company”) has taken a material step forward during 2026, with circVec demonstrating up to ~60x higher gene expression than conventional mRNA-based AAV in three separate tissues. In heart, the advantage has since been confirmed with a therapeutic protein, showing that it holds for a real drug payload and not only a laboratory marker. Moreover, Circio has raised ~NOK 820m during 2026, with an estimated runway into FY2030, and has entered into 23 strategic collaborations across gene and cell therapy. Several triggers lie ahead, including in vivo data for circVec 5.0 and its expected 200x advantage, the first AAV-circVec data in a relevant in vivo disease model, and in vivo results from the top-5 pharma collaboration in CNS. Together these are expected to strengthen the validated platform and reduce the technical risk a licensee would assume, which Analyst Group estimates will translate into a first licensing agreement during 2027. Based on a platform-focused rNPV framework, we derive NOK 10.3 (5.9) per share in a Base scenario.

Circio Holding (”Circio” or ”the Company”) has taken a material step forward during 2026, with circVec demonstrating up to ~60x higher gene expression than conventional mRNA-based AAV in three separate tissues. In heart, the advantage has since been confirmed with a therapeutic protein, showing that it holds for a real drug payload and not only a laboratory marker. Moreover, Circio has raised ~NOK 820m during 2026, with an estimated runway into FY2030, and has entered into 23 strategic collaborations across gene and cell therapy. Several triggers lie ahead, including in vivo data for circVec 5.0 and its expected 200x advantage, the first AAV-circVec data in a relevant in vivo disease model, and in vivo results from the top-5 pharma collaboration in CNS. Together these are expected to strengthen the validated platform and reduce the technical risk a licensee would assume, which Analyst Group estimates will translate into a first licensing agreement during 2027. Based on a platform-focused rNPV framework, we derive NOK 10.3 (5.9) per share in a Base scenario.

Read the equity research report here

About Analyst Group: One of Sweden's leading equity research boutiques with focus on small and medium-sized listed companies.Read more about Analyst Group This is a press release from Analyst Group regarding the publication of a comment on Circio Holding. Readers may assume that Analyst Group has received compensation for making the comment. The Company has not been given an opportunity to influence the parts where Analyst Group has had opinions about the Company, future valuation or anything else that could be considered a subjective assessment.